The New Paradigm for Financial Markets
First, Soros is a very savvy financial genius. I’m always amazed when people try to take shots at him. It’s like saying Bill Gates doesn’t understand technology. When Soros talks, listen. If you don’t understand, listen some more.
Reflexivity is Soros’s pet theory. He outlined it in the Alchemy of Finance. Basically the idea is that events can become self reinforcing. How does that relate to the mortgage collapse?
The mortgage bubble and collapse was just like any other. Banks and other institutions noticed that lending money was profitable when the economy was expanding. All the loans seemed to be turning out well. The banks were printing money and decided to loan more and more. As more credit became available, the economy continued to perform strongly (the easy availability of money spurs on the economy) causing existing loans to perform even better. Banks were enticed to lend even more. All the while, institutions of all stripes continued to pile on leverage as their investments blossomed. Eventually someone decided to take their chips off the table. All of a sudden, credit came into question. Institutions started to de-lever, worried that they wouldn’t be able to get their money off the table fast enough. No one would extend more credit. Money became scarce. Loans defaulted. The housing market crashed. Read…
